Ingufu z’izuba n’umuyaga zikomeje gufasha Ubushinwa kugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere
Ubushinwa bwateye intambwe ikomeye mu kugabanya ikoreshwa ry’amakara mu gutanga amashanyarazi, nyuma y’uko mu mezi atandatu ya mbere ya 2026, uruhare rw’amakara mu mashanyarazi yose yakozwe muri iki gihugu rugabanutse rukajya munsi ya 50%, ku nshuro ya mbere mu mateka yacyo.
Imibare y’Ikigo cy’Igihugu Gishinzwe Ingufu mu Bushinwa (NEA) igaragaza ko hagati ya Mutarama na Kamena 2026, amashanyarazi akomoka ku makara yari agize 49,7% by’ayasanzwe akorerwa muri iki gihugu, avuye ku kigero cya 54% mu 2025. Ni mu gihe amashanyarazi akomoka ku ngufu zisubira yari ageze kuri 41,2%, aho ayakomoka ku mirasire y’izuba n’umuyaga yari ahagarariye 24,6%.
Iri gabanuka ry’uruhare rw’amakara ryatewe ahanini n’ishoramari rikomeye Ubushinwa bukomeje gukora mu ngufu zisubira, by’umwihariko izikomoka ku mirasire y’izuba n’umuyaga. Ibi byafashije iki gihugu kongera ubushobozi bwo gukora amashanyarazi hadakoreshejwe ibicanwa bitanga imyuka myinshi ihumanya ikirere.
Mu myaka 20 ishize, amakara yari agize hafi 80% by’amashanyarazi yakoreshwaga mu Bushinwa. Icyakora, ubuyobozi bw’iki gihugu bwakomeje gushora imari mu mishinga y’ingufu zisukuye, hagamijwe kugabanya ingaruka z’ibicanwa bihumanya ikirere no kongera umutekano w’ingufu.
Mu 2023, Ubushinwa bwashyizeho ubushobozi bushya bwo gukora amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y’izuba bungana na gigawatt 217, buruta ubushobozi bwose Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zari zarashyizeho kuva zatangira gukoresha ubu buryo bw’ingufu. Iri shoramari ryakomeje kwiyongera mu 2024 na 2025.
Muri Nyakanga 2026, ubushobozi bw’inganda zitanga amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y’izuba mu Bushinwa bwarenze ubw’inganda zikoresha amakara, nubwo amakara yari agifite uruhare runini kurusha izuba mu mashanyarazi akorwa.
Ubushakashatsi bw’ikigo Climate Action Tracker bugaragaza ko Ubushinwa bushobora kuba bwarageze ku rwego rwo hejuru rw’imyuka ihumanya ikirere mu 2025, mbere y’uko itangira kugabanuka mu buryo burambye. Iki kigo kigaragaza ko kwiyongera kw’ingufu zisubira no kugabanuka kw’ikoreshwa ry’ibicanwa bihumanya ikirere bishobora gutuma iyo myuka ikomeza kugabanuka mu myaka iri imbere.
Ikindi kigo, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), cyagaragaje ko imyuka ya CO₂ mu Bushinwa yagabanutseho 1% mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2026, ahanini bitewe n’igabanuka ry’ikoreshwa rya peteroli. Icyakora, imyuka ituruka mu bikorwa byo gutanga amashanyarazi yari yiyongereyeho 3% mu mezi atandatu ya mbere y’uwo mwaka.
Mu rwego rwo kugabanya ikoreshwa ry’ibikomoka kuri peteroli mu myanda, Ubushinwa bukomeje gushyira imbaraga mu modoka zikoresha amashanyarazi. Ubushakashatsi bwa CREA bugaragaza ko hagati ya Mutarama na Kamena 2026, izo modoka zafashije iki gihugu kwirinda gukoresha ingufu zikomoka kuri peteroli zingana na toni miliyoni 36 z’ibikomoka kuri peteroli, ubariyemo n’ibindi bicanwa byasimbuwe n’amashanyarazi.
Muri Nyakanga 2026, imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi n’izindi zikoresha ingufu nshya zari zigize hafi imwe muri buri modoka icumi zanditswe mu Bushinwa. Mu 2025, hongeye kugurishwa arenga ibihumbi 400 by’amakamyo akoresha amashanyarazi, bigaragaza ko impinduka mu ikoreshwa ry’ingufu ziri kugera no mu rwego rwo gutwara imizigo.
Nubwo Ubushinwa bwateye intambwe ikomeye, buracyafite imbogamizi zijyanye no kubika no gukwirakwiza amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y’izuba n’umuyaga. Ubushakashatsi bwa CREA na Global Energy Monitor bugaragaza ko mu mezi atandatu ya mbere ya 2026, amashanyarazi angana na terawatt-hours 360 yashoboraga gukorwa hifashishijwe izo ngufu atakoreshejwe, bitewe n’imbogamizi mu kuyakira no kuyakwirakwiza.
Ibi bigaragaza ko kongera inganda zitanga amashanyarazi akomoka ku ngufu zisubira bidahagije byonyine, ahubwo hakenewe no kuvugurura imiyoboro iyakwirakwiza, kongera ubushobozi bwo kuyabika no kunoza imikoreshereze yayo.
Ubushinwa bwihaye intego yo kugera ku rwego rwo kutongera imyuka ihumanya ikirere mu buryo burenze iyo bushobora gukuraho bitarenze mu 2060. Kugira ngo bubigereho, buzakenera gukomeza kugabanya ikoreshwa ry’amakara, kongera ingufu zisubira no kwihutisha impinduka mu nganda no mu rwego rw’ubwikorezi.
Ibi ni ingenzi ku isi yose kuko Ubushinwa ari cyo gihugu gisohora imyuka myinshi ihumanya ikirere kurusha ibindi, bityo impinduka mu mikorere y’ingufu zabwo zikaba zishobora kugira uruhare rukomeye mu guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere.